Three under the Yankees radar for the 2018 season

Much of the talk surrounding the Yankees this spring has been about the big names: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez. There’s also been a lot of hype for the Yankees’ top prospects, Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Billy McKinney, the list goes on.

FanGraphs estimates the Yankees will win 95 games in 2018, good for second in the majors behind the Houston Astros.

Obviously, a fair amount of luck comes with a 162-game season. Still, being good on paper is a good place to start.

Getting to 95 wins means a lot of little things have to go right too. For example, three Yankees in particular don’t make many headlines, but they could play a pivotal role in 2018.

The first is Sonny Gray. The 28-year-old former Oakland A is entering his first full season with the Yankees. Gray finished third in Cy Young voting in 2015. For several seasons in Oakland, Gray was the ace. After a dismal 2016 in which Gray pitched just 117 innings, he bounced back in 2017, throwing 162.1 innings and posting a 3.55 ERA.

Although New York is a much bigger market than Oakland, Gray no longer needs to deal with the pressure of being the ace. He will start the season as the No. 3 pitcher, behind Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. As a very good No. 3 starter, Gray should benefit from easier matchups when opposing teams throw their aces against the Yankees’ better tandem.

Currently, FanGraphs (Depth Charts) predicts Gray will post 3.3 WAR over 185 innings pitched. This is a reasonable estimate, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if Gray were to exceed this number.

Second on the list is CC Sabathia.

During the offseason, CC Sabathia waived a 1-year, $10 million contract. Sabathia initially contemplated retirement due to persistent pain in his right knee. He underwent season-ending surgery in July 2014. CC underwent surgery again in October 2016 and was placed on the 10-day disabled list last August due to inflammation in his right knee.

Sabathia still managed to win 14 games in 2017, as well as racking up 1.9 fWAR, while posting a modest 3.69 ERA. 2018 will probably be the last season of CC. Fangraphs (Depth Charts) predict a 1.6 fWAR for Sabathia this season.

A healthy Sabathia could win 10-12 games for the Yankees this season. Having Sabathia in the starting rotation gives the Yankees the versatility to keep Chad Green in the bullpen again in 2018 for another year of experience. Green may contend for the CC starting job in 2019.

If Sabathia is able to land on that right knee without discomfort every 5 games, it will go a long way to the Yankees’ playoff hopes.

Third on this list, and possibly the Yankee who receives the least recognition, is Aaron Hicks.

2017 was Hicks’ most productive offensive season yet in the major leagues. Despite playing only 88 games, Hicks set his personal bests in home runs (15), runs (54), and RBIs (52). Additionally, Hicks’ on-base percentage (.372) soared 91 points over his 2016 total.

Hicks posted a 3.3 fWAR in his 88 games, finishing 13th among AL outfielders and 5th among center fielders. If you set Hicks’ fWAR/game at 162 complete games, he’d have a 6.1 WAR. This would rank him third among AL outfielders in 2017. At a more modest fWAR/game adjustment of 134 games (the fewest games played by the only person not named Trout), he would have recorded a WAR greater than 5.

This post would put Hicks slightly ahead of Justin Upton, as well as George Springer and Lorenzo Cain. I’m not claiming Hicks will live up to those numbers for a full season, but the potential is there.

Hicks could very well hit 25-30 homers, add 75 RBIs and score 80-90 runs in the bottom half of this deep Yankees lineup.

If Gray, Sabathia and Hicks can calmly put up the numbers they’re capable of, it would go a long way in helping the Yankees win No. 28.

Let’s hope no one else finds out about them until it’s too late.