The NFL’s top 3 picks for Sunday, September 25
Best play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over New England
I’ve seen some pundits weigh in on the Patriots, saying they’ll be “more focused” after losing in Carolina. I don’t think lack of focus plays into this much. The Patriots are a championship team that’s always focused, but they’re just struggling in two key aspects of the game.
They couldn’t run the ball or stop the run last week. After all, losing Bruschi is a factor, it doesn’t surprise many, since he and Harrison were the heart and soul of the D last year. The problem is that Harrison is insurance, so his presence is sometimes a negative.
Offensively, they haven’t been able to get Corey Dillon going, and they’re going to have a tough time this week against this Steeler D.
If this were a playoff game, I’d probably have to drop this one, as Cowher has a habit of not winning big games at home. This hasn’t been a problem in the regular season, as evidenced by the way they disarmed the Eagles and these same Pats in the 2004 regular season.
Willie Parker has done a great job filling in for Bettis and Staley, Big Ben looking better than when he took over last year. Pittsburgh looks like the best team in the AFC and maybe the entire NFL after two weeks, and I think they should win this home game more easily than most people realize.
New England gets respect (as it should) for what it has accomplished in recent years. They’re still the team to beat come January, but RIGHT NOW Pittsburgh is clearly the better team.
Best play: Pittsburgh-3
Regular Game: Falcons/Bills UNDER 37
Now that it looks like Vick will play, this total has been set at 37. I’m not convinced Vick won’t run, but the only question is how much he’ll be able to move.
The Bills also have a tough quarterback, and after last week’s performance, it’s even clearer that this offense goes through RB McGahee. He’s not afraid of any of these QBs hurting the opposing D with their arm.
2 great defense, it will be hard to drive the field for either offense. Both teams will need to force turnovers and give the offense a short field to be successful.
As long as Vick and Losman don’t hurt their teams with bad calls, it should be a 13-10 or 16-13 game.
Regular game: Bills/Falcons UNDER 37
Regular game: St. Louis Rams -6 1/2 over Tennessee
After an embarrassing loss in San Francisco, the Rams showed some toughness by coming back to win in the desert vs. Arizona. Anyone who reads my writing knows that I’m definitely not a fan of Martz, but his stubbornness will actually be a plus this week.
Martz leaves the run too early most of the time, but against a young and inexperienced Titans secondary, they should pass the ball around a lot this week.
The Titans did a good job filling the Ravens’ running game, but they may not be as lucky against Jackson and Faulk. Both are also dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield, which will occupy the strength of the Titans D, the linebackers.
The Rams’ defense looked much better than it did last year, especially against the run. McNair in this career bridge he can’t win games by himself, especially without the weapons he used to have on the outside.
Two of his best guns, WR Bennett and RB Brown, were hit last week and are questionable for this one. I expect both to play, but neither will be at his full strength. Travis Henry will have to shoulder more of the load, and I like how the Rams’ front 7 has looked so far.
Plus, coming home to grass will help the Rams on both sides of the ball. They can really expose the Titans’ lack of speed.
Regular Game: Rams -6 1/2